A.
Forecast methodology: each applicant may use a forecast methodology of its own
choosing, with due consideration given to cost, staffing requirements, and data
availability. However, any forecasts provided by the applicant shall be subject
to tests of accuracy, reasonableness, and consistency. The applicant shall
detail the forecast methodology employed to obtain the forecasts provided under
subpart
3, including:
(1) the overall methodological framework that
is used;
(2) the specific
analytical techniques that are used, their purpose, and the components of the
forecast to which they have been applied;
(3) the manner in which these specific
techniques are related in producing the forecast;
(4) where statistical techniques have been
used, the purpose of the technique, typical computations (e.g., computer
printouts, formulas used), specifying variables and data, and the results of
appropriate statistical tests;
(5)
forecast confidence levels or ranges of accuracy for annual peak demand and
annual gas consumption, as well as a description of their derivation;
(6) a brief analysis of the methodology used,
including:
(a) its strength and
weaknesses;
(b) its suitability to
the system;
(c) cost
considerations;
(d) data
requirements;
(e) past accuracy;
and
(f) other factors considered
significant by the applicant; and
(7) an explanation of any discrepancies that
appear between the forecasts submitted to the commission under these rules and
those submitted under chapter 7610, or in the applicant's previous certificate
of need proceedings.
B.
Data base: the applicant shall discuss the data base used in arriving at the
forecast presented in its application, including:
(1) a complete list of all data sets used in
making the forecast, including a brief description of each data set and an
explanation of how each was obtained, (e.g., monthly observations, billing
data, consumer survey) or a citation to the source (e.g., population projection
from the state demographer's office);
(2) a clear identification of any adjustments
made to raw data to adapt them for use in forecasts, including the nature of
the adjustment, the reason for the adjustment, and the magnitude of the
adjustment.
The applicant shall provide to the commission or the
administrative law judge on demand copies of all data sets used in making the
forecasts, including both raw and adjusted data, and input and output
data.
D. Subject of assumption: the applicant shall
discuss the assumptions made regarding:
(1)
the availability of alternate sources of energy;
(2) the expected conversion from other fuels
to gas or vice versa;
(3) future
prices of gas for customers in the applicant's system and the effect that such
price changes will likely have on the applicant's system demand;
(4) the assumptions made in arriving at any
data requested in subpart
3 that are not available
historically or not generated by the applicant in preparing its own internal
forecast;
(5) the effect of
existing energy conservation programs under federal or state legislation on
long-term gas demand; and
(6) any
other factor considered by the applicant in preparing the forecast.
