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law and economics

certainty effect

The certainty effect is where people focus more on their perceptions of certainty rather than the actual probable value. This partly occurs because people generally have a hard time understanding the difference between statistical values (such as 70% vs. 80%). As such, people will generally respond more positively when dealing with “absolutes” regardless of the situation. Likewise, reducing the probability when the outcome was initially certain will have more impact than if it was only likely (so, 100% to 90% vs. 50% to 40%). 

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