Ariz. Admin. Code § R18-2-1422 - Criteria and Procedures: Interim and Transitional Period Reductions in Ozone and CO Areas (Transportation Plan)

A. A transportation plan shall contribute to emissions reductions in ozone and CO nonattainment areas. This criterion applies during the interim and transitional periods only, except as otherwise provided in R18-2-1436 . It applies to the net effect on emissions of all projects contained in a new or revised transportation plan. This criterion may be satisfied if a regional emissions analysis is performed as described in subsections (B) through (F).

B. Determine the analysis years for which emissions are to be estimated. Analysis years shall be no more than 10 years apart. The first analysis year shall be no later than the first milestone year (1995 in CO nonattainment areas and 1996 in ozone nonattainment areas). The second analysis year shall be either the attainment year for the area or, if the attainment year is the same as the first analysis year or earlier, the second analysis year shall be at least five years beyond the first analysis year. The last year of the transportation plan's forecast period shall also be an analysis year.

C. Define the Baseline scenario for each of the analysis years to be the future transportation system that would result from current programs, composed of all of the following, except that projects listed in R18-2-1434 and R18-2-1435 need not be explicitly considered:

1. All in-place regionally significant highway and transit facilities, services and activities.

2. All ongoing travel demand management or transportation system management activities.

3. Completion of all regionally significant transportation projects, regardless of funding source, which are currently under construction or are undergoing right-of-way acquisition (except for hardship acquisition and protective buying); come from the first three years of the previously conforming transportation plan or TIP; or have completed the NEPA process. For the first conformity determination on the transportation plan after November 24, 1993, a project may not be included in the Baseline scenario and shall be included in the Action scenario as described in subsection (D), if one of the following major steps has not occurred within the most recent three-year period:

a. NEPA process completion;

b. Start of final design;

c. Acquisition of a significant portion of the right-of-way;

d. Approval of the plans, specifications and estimates.

D. Define the Action scenario for each of the analysis years as the transportation system that will result in that year from the implementation of the proposed transportation plan, TIPs adopted under it, and other expected regionally significant transportation projects in the nonattainment area. The Action scenario will include all of the following except that projects listed in R18-2-1434 and R18-2-1435 need not be explicitly considered:

1. All facilities, services, and activities in the Baseline scenario;

2. Completion of all TCMs and regionally significant transportation projects, including facilities, services, and activities, specifically identified in the proposed transportation plan which will be operational or in effect in the analysis year, except that regulatory TCMs may not be assumed to begin at a future time unless the regulation is already adopted by the enforcing jurisdiction or the TCM is identified in the applicable implementation plan;

3. All travel demand management programs and transportation system management activities known to the MPO, but not included in the applicable implementation plan or utilizing any federal funding or approval, which have been fully adopted or funded by the enforcing jurisdiction or sponsoring agency since the last conformity determination on the transportation plan;

4. The incremental effects of any travel demand management programs and transportation system management activities known to the MPO, but not included in the applicable implementation plan or utilizing any federal funding or approval, which were adopted or funded prior to the date of the last conformity determination on the transportation plan, but which have been modified since then to be more stringent or effective;

5. Completion of all expected regionally significant highway and transit projects which are not from a conforming transportation plan and TIP;

6. Completion of all expected regionally significant non-FHWA/FTA highway and transit projects that have clear funding sources and commitments leading toward their implementation and completion by the analysis year.

E. Estimate the emissions predicted to result in each analysis year from travel on the transportation systems defined by the Baseline and Action scenarios and determine the difference in regional VOC and NOx emissions (unless the Administrator determines that additional reductions of NOx would not contribute to attainment) between the two scenarios for ozone nonattainment areas and the difference in CO emissions between the two scenarios for CO nonattainment areas. The analysis shall be performed for each of the analysis years according to the requirements of R18-2-1430 . Emissions in milestone years which are between the analysis years may be determined by interpolation.

F. This criterion is met if the regional VOC and NOx emissions (for ozone nonattainment areas) and CO emissions (for CO nonattainment areas) predicted in the Action scenario are less than the emissions predicted from the Baseline scenario in each analysis year, and if this can reasonably be expected to be true in the periods between the first milestone year and the analysis years. The regional analysis shall show that the Action scenario contributes to a reduction in emissions from the 1990 emissions by any nonzero amount.

Notes

Ariz. Admin. Code § R18-2-1422

Adopted effective June 15, 1995 (Supp. 95-2).