Subpart 1.
Scope.
Each application shall contain pertinent data concerning peak
demand and annual electrical consumption within the applicant's service area
and system, as provided in part
7849.0220, including but not
limited to the data requested in subpart
2, item B. When recorded data
is not available, or when the applicant does not use the required data in
preparing its own forecast, the applicant shall use an estimate and indicate in
the forecast justification section in subparts
3 to
6 the procedures used in
deriving the estimate. The application shall clearly indicate which data are
historical and which are projected. It is expected that data provided by the
applicant should be reasonable and internally consistent.
Subp. 2.
Content of forecast.
For each forecast year, the following data must be
provided:
A. when the applicant's
service area includes areas other than Minnesota, annual electrical consumption
by ultimate consumers within the applicant's Minnesota service area;
B. for each of the following categories,
estimates of the number of ultimate consumers within the applicant's system and
annual electrical consumption by those consumers:
(1) farm, excluding irrigation and drainage
pumping (for reporting purposes, any tract of land used primarily for
agricultural purposes shall be considered farm land);
(2) irrigation and drainage
pumping;
(3) nonfarm residential
(when electricity is supplied through a single meter for both residential and
commercial uses, it shall be reported according to its principal use, and
apartment buildings shall be reported as residential even if not separately
metered);
(4) commercial (this
category shall include wholesale and retail trade; communication industries;
public and private office buildings, banks, and dormitories; insurance, real
estate and rental agencies; hotels and motels; personal business and auto
repair services; medical and educational facilities; recreational, social,
religious, and amusement facilities; governmental units, excluding military
bases; warehouses other than manufacturer owned; electric, gas, water and water
pumping, excluding water pumping for irrigation, and other
utilities);
(5) mining;
(6) industrial (this category shall include
all manufacturing industries, construction operations and petroleum
refineries);
(7) street and highway
lighting;
(8) electrified
transportation (this category shall include energy supplied for the propulsion
of vehicles, but shall not include energy supplied for office buildings,
depots, signal lights or other associated facilities that shall be reported as
commercial or industrial);
(9)
other (this category shall include municipal water pumping facilities, oil and
gas pipeline pumping facilities, military camps and bases, and all other
consumers not reported in subitems (1) to (8)); and
(10) the sum of subitems (1) to
(9);
C. an estimate of
the demand for power in the applicant's system at the time of annual system
peak demand, including an estimated breakdown of the demand into the consumer
categories listed in item B;
D. the
applicant's system peak demand by month;
E. the estimated annual revenue requirement
per kilowatt hour for the system in current dollars; and
F. the applicant's estimated average system
weekday load factor by month; in other words, for each month, the estimated
average of the individual load factors for each weekday in the month.
Subp. 3.
Forecast
methodology.
An applicant may use a forecast methodology of its own
choosing, with due consideration given to cost, staffing requirements, and data
availability. However, forecast data provided by the applicant is subject to
tests of accuracy, reasonableness, and consistency. The applicant shall detail
the forecast methodology employed to obtain the forecasts provided under
subpart
2, including:
A. the overall methodological framework that
is used;
B. the specific analytical
techniques which are used, their purpose, and the components of the forecast to
which they have been applied;
C.
the manner in which these specific techniques are related in producing the
forecast;
D. where statistical
techniques have been used:
(1) the purpose of
the technique;
(2) typical
computations (e.g., computer printouts, formulas used), specifying variables
and data; and
(3) the results of
appropriate statistical tests;
E. forecast confidence levels or ranges of
accuracy for annual peak demand and annual electrical consumption, as well as a
description of their derivation;
F.
a brief analysis of the methodology used, including:
(1) its strengths and weaknesses;
(2) its suitability to the system;
(3) cost considerations;
(4) data requirements;
(5) past accuracy; and
(6) other factors considered significant by
the applicant; and
G. an
explanation of discrepancies that appear between the forecasts presented in the
application and the forecasts submitted under chapter 7610 or in the
applicant's previous certificate of need proceedings.
Subp. 4.
Data base for
forecasts.
The applicant shall discuss the data base used in arriving at
the forecast presented in its application, including:
A. a complete list of all data sets used in
making the forecast, including a brief description of each data set and an
explanation of how each was obtained, (e.g., monthly observations, billing
data, consumer survey, etc.) or a citation to the source (e.g., population
projection from the state demographer's office);
B. a clear identification of any adjustments
made to raw data in order to adapt them for use in forecasts, including:
(1) the nature of the adjustment;
(2) the reason for the adjustment;
and
(3) the magnitude of the
adjustment.
The applicant shall provide to the commission or the
administrative law judge on demand copies of the data sets used in making the
forecasts, including both raw and adjusted data, input and output data.
Subp. 5.
Assumptions and special information.
The applicant shall discuss each essential assumption made in
preparing the forecast, including the need for the assumption, the nature of
the assumption, and the sensitivity of forecast results to variations in the
essential assumptions.
The applicant shall discuss the assumptions made
regarding:
A. the availability of
alternate sources of energy;
B. the
expected conversion from other fuels to electricity or vice versa;
C. future prices of electricity for customers
in the applicant's system and the effect that such price changes will likely
have on the applicant's system demand;
D. the data requested in subpart
2 that is not available
historically or not generated by the applicant in preparing its own internal
forecast;
E. the effect of energy
conservation programs on long-term electrical demand; and
F. any other factor considered by the
applicant in preparing the forecast.
Subp. 6.
Coordination of forecasts with
other systems.
The applicant shall provide:
A. a description of the extent to which the
applicant coordinates its load forecasts with those of other systems, such as
neighboring systems and associate systems in a power pool or coordinating
organization; and
B. a description
of the manner in which such forecasts are coordinated, and any problems
experienced in efforts to coordinate load forecasts.
