19 Tex. Admin. Code § 13.624 - Forecasting Fundable Outcomes

(a) Purpose. The purpose of this section is to establish the methodology for forecasting fundable performance outcomes to calculate performance tier funding amounts covering a time period for which performance data are not yet available. The Coordinating Board shall forecast each fundable performance outcome as defined under §13.556 of this chapter (relating to Performance Tier: Fundable Outcomes), except those set out under § 13.553(28) and (31) of this chapter (relating to Definitions) for each public junior college using historical performance data. The Coordinating Board shall use these figures to calculate each performance tier payment for the funded fiscal year as established under § 13.555 of this chapter (relating to Performance Tier Funding).

(b) Methodology. The Coordinating Board shall forecast the total annual count of a fundable performance outcome for a public junior college using the exponential triple smoothing method of trend analysis with additive error, trend, and seasonality parameters applied to time series data. This time series data shall use fundable certified data with the counts of fundable outcomes achieved annually by the public junior college during no fewer than the six most recent years for which data are available except as otherwise provided by subsection (c) of this section.

(c) Other time series data. The time series data for forecasting Occupational Skills Awards and Institutional Credentials Leading to Licensure or Certification shall use fundable certified data with the counts of each fundable outcome achieved annually by a public junior college during no fewer than the four most recent fiscal years for which data are available. For Institutional Credentials Leading to Licensure or Certification, the Coordinating Board shall use the definition for the credential in effect during the fiscal year for which the credential was counted.

(d) Bounded projections. The forecasted total annual count of a fundable performance outcome for a fiscal year shall not exceed 110 percent nor be less than 95 percent of the count for the prior year. If the count for the prior year is also a forecasted value, then the maximum allowable change for the current year shall be calculated against the prior year's forecasted value as adjusted pursuant to this rule. If the value for a fundable performance outcome for the most recent actual, not forecasted data is zero, the forecast shall not be bounded in the next fiscal year. In no circumstances may an estimated fundable performance outcome be negative.

(e) As provided by §13.556 of this chapter, the Coordinating Board shall forecast the number of each fundable credential in a high-demand field, as defined under subchapter T of this chapter (relating to Community College Finance Program: High-Demand Fields), for a fiscal year by multiplying the average annual percentage of the credential conferred in a high-demand field in the credential's time series data by the total count of the credential forecast to be conferred in that year.

(f) As provided by §13.556 of this chapter, the Coordinating Board shall forecast the number of each fundable credential conferred to students who are academically disadvantaged, economically disadvantaged, and adult learners, as provided by §13.557 of this chapter (relating to Performance Tier: Fundable Outcome Weights), for a fiscal year by multiplying the average percentage of the credential conferred by the institution to students in each respective subgroup in the credential's time series data by the total count of the credential forecast to be conferred by the institution in that year.

Notes

19 Tex. Admin. Code § 13.624

Adopted by Texas Register, Volume 49, Number 32, August 9, 2024, TexReg 5978, eff. 8/15/2024