Ariz. Admin. Code § R18-2-1425 - Criteria and Procedures: Interim Period Reductions for PM[10] and NO[2] Areas (Transportation Plan)

A. A transportation plan shall contribute to emission reductions or shall not increase emissions in PM₁₀ and NO₂ nonattainment areas. This criterion applies only during the interim and transitional periods. It applies to the net effect on emissions of all projects contained in a new or revised transportation plan. This criterion may be satisfied if the requirements of either subsections (B) or (C) are met.

B. Demonstrate that implementation of the plan and all other regionally significant transportation projects expected in the nonattainment area will contribute to reductions in emissions of PM₁₀ in a PM₁₀ nonattainment area, and of each transportation-related precursor of PM₁₀ in PM₁₀ nonattainment areas if the EPA Regional Administrator or the Director of ADEQ has made a finding that such precursor emissions from within the nonattainment area are a significant contributor to the PM₁₀ nonattainment problem and has so notified the MPO and USDOT, and of NOx in an NO₂ nonattainment area, by performing a regional emissions analysis as follows:

1. Determine the analysis years for which emissions are to be estimated. Analysis years shall be no more than 10 years apart. The first analysis year shall be no later than 1996 (for NO₂ areas) or four years and six months following the date of designation (for PM₁₀ areas). The second analysis year shall be either the attainment year for the area or, if the attainment year is the same as the first analysis year or earlier, the second analysis year shall be at least five years beyond the first analysis year. The last year of the transportation plan's forecast period shall also be an analysis year.

2. Define for each of the analysis years the Baseline scenario, as defined in R18-2-1422(C), and the Action scenario, as defined in R18-2-1422(D).

3. Estimate the emissions predicted to result in each analysis year from travel on the transportation systems defined by the Baseline and Action scenarios and determine the difference between the two scenarios in regional PM₁₀ emissions in a PM₁₀ nonattainment area (and transportation-related precursors of PM₁₀ in PM₁₀ nonattainment areas if the EPA Regional Administrator or the Director of ADEQ has made a finding that such precursor emissions from within the nonattainment area are a significant contributor to the PM₁₀ nonattainment problem and has so notified ADOT, the MPO where one exists and USDOT) and in NOx emissions in an NO₂ nonattainment area. The analysis shall be performed for each of the analysis years according to the requirements of R18-2-1430 . The analysis shall address the periods between the analysis years and the periods between 1990, the first milestone year if any, and the first of the analysis years. Emissions in milestone years which are between the analysis years may be determined by interpolation.

4. Demonstrate that the regional PM₁₀ emissions and PM₁₀ precursor emissions, where applicable, (for PM₁₀ nonattainment areas) and NOx emissions (for NO₂ nonattainment areas) predicted in the Action scenario are less than the emissions predicted from the Baseline scenario in each analysis year, and that this can reasonably be expected to be true in the periods between the first milestone year (if any) and the analysis years.

C. Demonstrate that when the projects in the transportation plan and all other regionally significant transportation projects expected in the nonattainment area are implemented, the transportation system's total highway and transit emissions of PM₁₀ in a PM₁₀ nonattainment area (and transportation-related precursors of PM₁₀ in PM₁₀ nonattainment areas if the EPA Regional Administrator or the Director of ADEQ has made a finding that such precursor emissions from within the nonattainment area are a significant contributor to the PM₁₀ nonattainment problem and has so notified the MPO and USDOT) and of NOx in an NO₂ nonattainment area will not be greater than baseline levels, by performing a regional emissions analysis as follows:

1. Determine the baseline regional emissions of PM₁₀ and PM₁₀ precursors, where applicable (for PM₁₀ nonattainment areas) and NOx (for NO₂ nonattainment areas) from highway and transit sources. Baseline emissions are those estimated to have occurred during calendar year 1990, unless the control strategy implementation plan for that area includes a baseline emissions inventory for a different year.

2. Estimate the emissions of the applicable pollutant or pollutants from the entire transportation system, including projects in the transportation plan and TIP and all other regionally significant transportation projects in the nonattainment area, according to the requirements of R18-2-1430 . Emissions shall be estimated for analysis years which are no more than 10 years apart. The first analysis year shall be no later than 1996 (for NO₂ areas) or four years and six months following the date of designation (for PM₁₀ areas). The second analysis year shall be either the attainment year for the area or, if the attainment year is the same as the first analysis year or earlier, the second analysis year shall be at least five years beyond the first analysis year. The last year of the transportation plan's forecast period shall also be an analysis year.

3. Demonstrate that for each analysis year the emissions estimated in subsection (C)(2) are no greater than baseline emissions of PM₁₀ and PM₁₀ precursors, where applicable (for PM₁₀ nonattainment areas) or NOx (for NO₂ nonattainment areas) from highway and transit sources.

Notes

Ariz. Admin. Code § R18-2-1425

Adopted effective June 15, 1995 (Supp. 95-2).