To forecast 14-year employment growth based on the PSU long
term forecast of population growth, a city must:
(1) Determine the forecast population of the
city's UGB for the 14-year period from the year in which the UGB analysis was
initiated based on the most recent forecast issued by the Portland State
University Population Research Center.
(2) Determine the current population of the
UGB using the most recent population estimate issued by the Portland State
University Population Research Center.
(3) Determine the rate of population growth
for the city over the 14-year period based on sections (1) and (2).
(4) Using Table 3, determine the current
number of "commercial" and "industrial" jobs in the UGB, based on the
definitions in OAR
660-038-0010.
(5) To forecast the number of new commercial
and new industrial jobs anticipated to occur in the UGB for the 14-year
planning period, the city must:
(a) Multiply
the number of commercial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (4) by
the rate of population growth rate determined in section (3), and
(b) Multiply the number of industrial jobs
currently in the UGB determined in section (4) by the rate of population growth
determined in section (3).
(6) To account for jobs that are likely to
occur on land that is zoned for uses other than commercial or industrial (and
which therefore will not require buildable "employment land"), the city must
reduce the forecast of new jobs determined in section (5) by 20
percent.
(7) The result is the
number of new commercial and industrial jobs forecast for the 14-year planning
period to be accommodated on employment lands in the UGB. The city must use
this result or the result in OAR
660-038-0110 as a basis for
determining land needs under OAR
660-038-0140.
Notes
Or. Admin. Code
§
660-038-0100
LCDD
6-2015, f. 12-29-15, cert. ef.
1/1/2016;
LCDD
1-2019, amend filed 01/28/2019, effective
2/5/2019;
LCDD
7-2020, amend filed 06/22/2020, effective
7/3/2020;
LCDD
4-2023, amend filed 05/10/2023, effective
5/10/2023;
LCDD
8-2023, amend filed 08/07/2023, effective
8/7/2023;
LCDD
3-2024, amend filed 07/11/2024, effective
7/11/2024
Statutory/Other Authority: ORS
197A.305, ORS
197A.320, ORS
197.040 & ORS
197.235
Statutes/Other Implemented: ORS
197A.300, ORS
197A.302, ORS
197A.305, ORS
197A.310, ORS
197A.312, ORS
197A.315, ORS
197A.320 & ORS
197A.325
